FTSE 100 Track Record
"ShareMaestro is a system with a great track record of correctly
valuing the FTSE100 and its constituent shares"
Using ShareMaestro's investment signals to switch between FTSE100 investment and cash, you could have achieved a compound annual return of 20.1 % over the decade ending 30 September 2011. This is far higher than the best return achieved by any managed UK equity fund.
Buy/Sell signals
Since the start of the FTSE 100 in 1984, every ShareMaestro Buy signal has delivered a profit upon the subsequent sell signal. Furthermore, the cumulative capital gain (on £100) for periods when ShareMaestro has signalled investment in the FTSE100 has been £376. This is 94 times the cumulative capital gain for periods when ShareMaestro signalled disinvestment from the FTSE100 (just £4):
| PERIODS WHEN SHAREMAESTRO SIGNALLED INVESTMENT IN THE FTSE100 |
||||||
Buy date |
FTSE 100 price |
Sell date |
FTSE 100 price |
% Capital Gain |
Years invested |
Cumulative capital growth on £100 base |
| 100 | ||||||
| 26/06/85 | 1236.5 | 21/11/85 | 1443.1 | + 16.7 | 0.41 | 117 |
| 28/10/87 | 1658.4 | 11/07/89 | 2250.9 | + 35.8 | 1.70 | 158 |
| 09/04/90 | 2227.7 | 24/12/93 | 3412.3 | + 53.2 | 3.71 | 243 |
| 07/03/95 | 2977.0 | 12/10/95 | 3523.8 | + 18.4 | 0.60 | 287 |
| 11/07/02 | 4230.0 | 23/01/07 | 6227.6 | + 47.2 | 4.54 | 423 |
| 16/08/07 | 5859.9 | 05/10/07 | 6595.8 | +12.6 | 0.14 | 476 |
| Total | 11.1 | |||||
| Cumulative capital gain (476 less 100) | 376 | |||||
| PERIODS WHEN SHAREMAESTRO SIGNALLED AVOIDING THE FTSE100 |
||||||
Sell date |
FTSE 100 price |
Buy date | FTSE 100 price | % Capital Gain(loss) | Years invested | Cumulative capital growth on £100 base |
| 100 | ||||||
| 21/11/85 | 1443.1 | 28/10/87 | 1658.4 | + 14.9 | 1.93 | 115 |
| 11/07/89 | 2250.9 | 09/04/90 | 2227.7 | (-1.0) | 0.75 | 114 |
| 24/12/93 | 3412.3 | 07/03/95 | 2977.0 | (-12.8) | 1.20 | 99 |
| 12/10/95 | 3523.8 | 11/07/02 | 4230.0 | + 20.0 | 6.75 | 119 |
| 23/01/07 | 6227.6 | 16/08/07 | 5859.9 | (- 5.9) | .56 | 112 |
| 05/10/07 | 6595.8 | 19/11/07 | 6120.8 | (- 7.2) | .12 | 104 |
| Total | 11.3 | 3.4 | ||||
| Cumulative capital gain (104 less 100) | 4 | |||||
These outstanding results
have been achieved
using the default ShareMaestro FTSE 100 input values of 10% for Risk Premium and 2% p.a. (the long-term average) for real dividend growth, together with the standard 105%/95% buy/sell spread. Using these default values, there have been no buy or sell signals since the end of 2007. All the other input data are the factual economic and market data for the valuation dates and can be verified. Even greater returns are possible by adjusting the input value for real dividend growth according to the prospects for corporate profitability over the 5-year investment period, as described in the User Manual. So, for example, in 2011, during the worst economic environment since World War II, real annual dividend growth for the next 5 years is more likely to be 0%, or less, than 2%.
ShareMaestro FTSE 100 valuations for key dates
ShareMaestro correctly identified the true values of the FTSE100 at the peak and trough prices of the FTSE 100
the market this century:
At the end of 1999 the FTSE100 was driven by greed and by dot.com fever up to
6930. The ShareMaestro valuation was just 3942.In the next three and a quarter years the FTSE100 duly crashed. The index lost more
than half its value to less than 3300. By this stage the ShareMaestro valuation was
4957. Whilst greed has driven the FTSE100 to unsustainable heights, the subsequent
fear, which took over when the bubble burst, drove the index too low.Over the next few years the FTSE100 soared, as predicted by ShareMaestro, and
exceeded the trough valuation within 2 years.When the FTSE 100 price was 4096.4 on 28th April 2009, the ShareMaestro valuation showed the real value of the FTSE 100 to be 5104.6, 25% more than the market price. This valuation was published in the Investors Chronicle masterclass on Accelerated Trackers (June 2009). The FTSE 100 price subsequently soared to meet the ShareMaestro valuation in less than 5 months (an annualised gain of more than 60%).
These ShareMaestro valuations can be viewed by clicking on this link: ShareMaestro Valuations.
Crash Protection
Since 1984 there have been 5 FTSE100 crashes of more than 25%. At each of these
peaks, the ShareMaestro valuation gave a sell signal before the subsequent crash.
See Crash Protection.
Fund Management
Two ShareMaestro model FTSE 100 funds have significantly outperformed the market over the last 10 years. One has achieved a far higher return than any other fund in its sector. See Fund Management.
